Tag Archives: arms industry

Bla bla Somalia bla bla

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I do tend to drone on about Somalia a lot, pardon the pun, and here’s evidence, by semi popular demand: this is a letter to the Private Eye where I point out that corrupt warlords didn’t create the disintegration in Somalia, rather they are the products of it.

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(it’s unfair on the guy who wrote the original piece obviously because I don’t include his article which wasn’t all bad)

I know you are supposed to be a retired colonel before you start writing to esteemed organs in order to correct them, but in this case I thought it worth pointing out; if someone said, for example, Britain invaded Poland to start world war two it might be seen as somewhat misleading.

Whilst the world is becoming increasingly peaceful, there’s still a lot of conflict to keep up with and it’s hard to remember who started what when. Who are the bad guys? And it does seem logical that warlords would have started the war. With a name like that. If they had, the solution would be easy. Get rid of the warlords, innit.

The only problem is that warlords didn’t start the war, they inherited it: or at least the conditions in which it was possible. They came into existence in the power vacuum created by the absence of an evil dictator. Someone who the international community knew was bad, but propped up for years, to whom it supplied tons and tons of weaponry along the way, much of which was used against said dictators’ own people, creating decades of mess in the fall out. Does this in any way sound familiar?

The wider problem for people who aren’t slightly obsessed with Somalia is that we are used to getting news about the world in incremental updates even if we don’t understand the main story – a bit like getting software updates for software you don’t own. I didn’t learn about Somalia at school, did you? So why would you know this stuff? How could you possibly know that the conditions for the situation in Somalia, and by extension Kenya, preceded the rise of al Shabab?

It’s complicated of course; there are many reasons why things went wrong in Somalia, including its colonial past – which takes in Italian, British and Omani rulers – as well as a clan-based societal structure that doesn’t mix well with modern military hardware, and many more. Needless to say the average Somali is a victim in the piece, which makes it all the more frustrating when *some people* more or less assume that if you are Somali you are either a warlord, terrorist or pirate rather than someone whose country has been messed up by these factors.

It’s pretty important stuff – particularly if you are British. Britain is in the top few arms exporters in the world – exact figures are murky because so many weapons are given away in dodgy deals.

Britain has spent decades supplying weapons to countries with dodgy leaders which then get used. They also get used in the terrible, chaotic aftermath of those dodgy leaders and it’s my opinion that the only way that we can prevent future, similar situations is by unilaterally reducing arms exports.

PS The thing you can do about it is support the campaign against the arms trade: http://www.caat.org.uk
Or if you disagree, you can always plump for a career in the defence industry, where ‘a change in market conditions is presenting new opportunities,’ apparently:
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/channels/skills-and-careers/in-depth/engineering-job-opportunities-in-the-defence-sector/1015722.article

‘Let them eat biscuits’ – stoner King Charles in 2044

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I’m running an alternative Royal baby book. Instead of guessing the name, you have to predict which future oppressive regimes the new monarch-to-be will help the UK sell arms to when the lad comes of age, and of what type.

Who will be rich enough to buy weapons from the UK, and what kind of things will they want to buy? This graphic provides a useful idea of where we are now:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/feb/22/uk-arms-sales-middle-east-north-africa

But by 2044 things will be different, as many of those countries will no longer be oil-rich, so presumably no longer forking out for top notch military hardware. So in placing your bets, take this into account. Will the leaders of richest countries in 21 years, which are unlikely to have royal families themselves, be interested in doing business behind closed doors with a royal? Will the invitation to Buckingham Palace to meet (presumably) King William be worth the premium to the leaders of Brazil or India, or will they be going for the lower unit cost arms exporters like China and Russia?

Although it’s not just foreign royalty who appreciate the discretion that only a behind-closed-doors meeting with a UK royal can guarantee – it’s despots of all types. For example Colonel Gaddafi met ‘trade envoy’ Prince Andrew in 2008 – will their future equivalents in 2044 do likewise?

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Would you buy a used weapons system from this man?

Britain is currently the sixth biggest arms exporter in the world, although the figures are murky and in the case of the UK there’s a lot of packages involved, so like buying a phone on a monthly tariff, it’s complex. You don’t just get to buy the helicopter* that Prince Harry flew over Afghanistan, or the gun he was firing, you can also get training from the same people who trained him, and the software too. As weapons systems become more complex this trend is likely to continue, particularly in the areas in which Britain punches above its weight, such as aerospace and ‘naval systems’ i.e. not weapons designed to attack your naval, but ships and stuff.

The official figures for UK exports are kind of published. ‘As part of its commitment to transparency in Export Controls, the Government has published Annual Reports on export licensing decisions since 1997’ it says here although you need to log in and be approved, which is odd for a transparency site: https://www.exportcontroldb.bis.gov.uk/eng/fox

From this site you can find out, for example, of the 2012’s £4,119,718 of direct arms exports to Israel (plus £13,747,760 of sales for to re-export), what proportion is spent on ‘components for all-wheel drive vehicles with ballistic protection’ or whatever. It gets incredibly detailed, so for the purposes of this book we can just simplify, eg  ‘hovercars, Brazil, 100 – 1′ or whatever.

I will close the book when King Parasite Klasswar Barbara Windsor (or whatever the nipper gets called) reaches his first birthday, which will give you time to ponder the matter. Please add your suggestions to mine in the comments field below, especially clear favourites. Payouts in 2044 will have accrued interest which given the state of our pensions, make this a sound investment.

Israel, naval technology: 8-1
A tipster writes: ‘tricky one this. Israel itself is becoming a major manufacturer and exporter, but will likely hit a glass ceiling as so many countries won’t do business with them. They’ll still be likely to depend on the UK for specialist expertise.’

Iraq, aerospace: 10-1
A tipster writes: ‘Iraq’s always a contender, the Brits have been selling arms to Iraq since they invented the country in 1920, whatever the regime. A punt on Iraq would mean that the UK arms sector is in decline as a result of foreign competition – there are bigger markets out there.’

Nigeria, small arms: 20-1
A tipster writes: ‘an oil-rich Nigeria, whose dodgiest leaders have traditionally had strong links with British Royals, could be an outside bet, particularly if the threat of civil war is still about in 2044.’

Saudi Arabia, drones and unmanned vehicles: 50-1
A tipster writes ‘unarmed aircraft will be a competitive sector in the future, but if traditional trade links in the royal-to-royal arms sector count for anything – and if the Saudis have any money left – this could be a tasty outside bet.’

Others:

A despotic stoner King Charles bans UK arms exports, issuing a controversial decree that ballistics factories be forced to manufacture Duchy Original biscuits in an attempt to drive their price down: 500-1

People will have worked out a way of resolving conflict without resorting to violence and there will be no arms sales by anyone to anyone. A massive revival in 1990s piano house music clubs will plug the hole in the economy: 1000-1