I’m running an alternative Royal baby book. Instead of guessing the name, you have to predict which future oppressive regimes the new monarch-to-be will help the UK sell arms to when the lad comes of age, and of what type.
Who will be rich enough to buy weapons from the UK, and what kind of things will they want to buy? This graphic provides a useful idea of where we are now:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/feb/22/uk-arms-sales-middle-east-north-africa
But by 2044 things will be different, as many of those countries will no longer be oil-rich, so presumably no longer forking out for top notch military hardware. So in placing your bets, take this into account. Will the leaders of richest countries in 21 years, which are unlikely to have royal families themselves, be interested in doing business behind closed doors with a royal? Will the invitation to Buckingham Palace to meet (presumably) King William be worth the premium to the leaders of Brazil or India, or will they be going for the lower unit cost arms exporters like China and Russia?
Although it’s not just foreign royalty who appreciate the discretion that only a behind-closed-doors meeting with a UK royal can guarantee – it’s despots of all types. For example Colonel Gaddafi met ‘trade envoy’ Prince Andrew in 2008 – will their future equivalents in 2044 do likewise?
Britain is currently the sixth biggest arms exporter in the world, although the figures are murky and in the case of the UK there’s a lot of packages involved, so like buying a phone on a monthly tariff, it’s complex. You don’t just get to buy the helicopter* that Prince Harry flew over Afghanistan, or the gun he was firing, you can also get training from the same people who trained him, and the software too. As weapons systems become more complex this trend is likely to continue, particularly in the areas in which Britain punches above its weight, such as aerospace and ‘naval systems’ i.e. not weapons designed to attack your naval, but ships and stuff.
The official figures for UK exports are kind of published. ‘As part of its commitment to transparency in Export Controls, the Government has published Annual Reports on export licensing decisions since 1997’ it says here although you need to log in and be approved, which is odd for a transparency site: https://www.exportcontroldb.bis.gov.uk/eng/fox
From this site you can find out, for example, of the 2012’s £4,119,718 of direct arms exports to Israel (plus £13,747,760 of sales for to re-export), what proportion is spent on ‘components for all-wheel drive vehicles with ballistic protection’ or whatever. It gets incredibly detailed, so for the purposes of this book we can just simplify, eg ‘hovercars, Brazil, 100 – 1′ or whatever.
I will close the book when King Parasite Klasswar Barbara Windsor (or whatever the nipper gets called) reaches his first birthday, which will give you time to ponder the matter. Please add your suggestions to mine in the comments field below, especially clear favourites. Payouts in 2044 will have accrued interest which given the state of our pensions, make this a sound investment.
Israel, naval technology: 8-1
A tipster writes: ‘tricky one this. Israel itself is becoming a major manufacturer and exporter, but will likely hit a glass ceiling as so many countries won’t do business with them. They’ll still be likely to depend on the UK for specialist expertise.’
Iraq, aerospace: 10-1
A tipster writes: ‘Iraq’s always a contender, the Brits have been selling arms to Iraq since they invented the country in 1920, whatever the regime. A punt on Iraq would mean that the UK arms sector is in decline as a result of foreign competition – there are bigger markets out there.’
Nigeria, small arms: 20-1
A tipster writes: ‘an oil-rich Nigeria, whose dodgiest leaders have traditionally had strong links with British Royals, could be an outside bet, particularly if the threat of civil war is still about in 2044.’
Saudi Arabia, drones and unmanned vehicles: 50-1
A tipster writes ‘unarmed aircraft will be a competitive sector in the future, but if traditional trade links in the royal-to-royal arms sector count for anything – and if the Saudis have any money left – this could be a tasty outside bet.’
Others:
A despotic stoner King Charles bans UK arms exports, issuing a controversial decree that ballistics factories be forced to manufacture Duchy Original biscuits in an attempt to drive their price down: 500-1
People will have worked out a way of resolving conflict without resorting to violence and there will be no arms sales by anyone to anyone. A massive revival in 1990s piano house music clubs will plug the hole in the economy: 1000-1